Transport

Passenger modelling and forecasting

ACIL Tasman has developed expertise in rail passenger modelling using econometric techniques, and analysing interaction of freight and passenger services.

This form of modelling was most recently utilised during the north-south project on the Australian eastern seaboard, which analysed the effect of congestion arising from all rail traffic in the Sydney area. Based on industry interviews and using econometric techniques, ACIL Tasman forecast passenger transport flows, passenger transport numbers by mode, peak and off-peak passenger numbers, and passenger train capacity utilisation rates. The explanatory variables included incomes, population and service improvements.

The forecasting results put into perspective some of the issues that had arisen regarding rail passenger growth in the regions north of Sydney, and had implications for the assessment of rail freight capacity issues in the region.

See our passenger modelling case studies.